PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Nishenko, S. P.
AU  - Bollinger, G. A.
TI  - Forecasting Damaging Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States
AID  - 10.1126/science.249.4975.1412
DP  - 1990 Sep 21
TA  - Science
PG  - 1412--1416
VI  - 249
IP  - 4975
4099  - http://science.sciencemag.org/content/249/4975/1412.short
4100  - http://science.sciencemag.org/content/249/4975/1412.full
SO  - Science1990 Sep 21; 249
AB  - Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude ≥ 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.