RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Forecasting Damaging Earthquakes in the Central and Eastern United States
JF Science
JO Science
FD American Association for the Advancement of Science
SP 1412
OP 1416
DO 10.1126/science.249.4975.1412
VO 249
IS 4975
A1 Nishenko, S. P.
A1 Bollinger, G. A.
YR 1990
UL http://science.sciencemag.org/content/249/4975/1412.abstract
AB Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude ≥ 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.