RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation
JF Science
JO Science
FD American Association for the Advancement of Science
SP 661
OP 665
DO 10.1126/science.288.5466.661
VO 288
IS 5466
A1 Parsons, Tom
A1 Toda, Shinji
A1 Stein, Ross S.
A1 Barka, Aykut
A1 Dieterich, James H.
YR 2000
UL http://science.sciencemag.org/content/288/5466/661.abstract
AB We calculate the probability of strong shaking in Istanbul, an urban center of 10 million people, from the description of earthquakes on the North Anatolian fault system in the Marmara Sea during the past 500 years and test the resulting catalog against the frequency of damage in Istanbul during the preceding millennium. Departing from current practice, we include the time-dependent effect of stress transferred by the 1999 moment magnitude M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to faults nearer to Istanbul. We find a 62 ± 15% probability (one standard deviation) of strong shaking during the next 30 years and 32 ± 12% during the next decade.