PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Smith, Derek J.
AU  - Lapedes, Alan S.
AU  - de Jong, Jan C.
AU  - Bestebroer, Theo M.
AU  - Rimmelzwaan, Guus F.
AU  - Osterhaus, Albert D. M. E.
AU  - Fouchier, Ron A. M.
TI  - Mapping the Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Influenza Virus
AID  - 10.1126/science.1097211
DP  - 2004 Jul 16
TA  - Science
PG  - 371--376
VI  - 305
IP  - 5682
4099  - http://science.sciencemag.org/content/305/5682/371.short
4100  - http://science.sciencemag.org/content/305/5682/371.full
SO  - Science2004 Jul 16; 305
AB  - The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.