PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE AU - Smith, Derek J. AU - Lapedes, Alan S. AU - de Jong, Jan C. AU - Bestebroer, Theo M. AU - Rimmelzwaan, Guus F. AU - Osterhaus, Albert D. M. E. AU - Fouchier, Ron A. M. TI - Mapping the Antigenic and Genetic Evolution of Influenza Virus AID - 10.1126/science.1097211 DP - 2004 Jul 16 TA - Science PG - 371--376 VI - 305 IP - 5682 4099 - http://science.sciencemag.org/content/305/5682/371.short 4100 - http://science.sciencemag.org/content/305/5682/371.full SO - Science2004 Jul 16; 305 AB - The antigenic evolution of influenza A (H3N2) virus was quantified and visualized from its introduction into humans in 1968 to 2003. Although there was remarkable correspondence between antigenic and genetic evolution, significant differences were observed: Antigenic evolution was more punctuated than genetic evolution, and genetic change sometimes had a disproportionately large antigenic effect. The method readily allows monitoring of antigenic differences among vaccine and circulating strains and thus estimation of the effects of vaccination. Further, this approach offers a route to predicting the relative success of emerging strains, which could be achieved by quantifying the combined effects of population level immune escape and viral fitness on strain evolution.