Table 1

Examples of biodiversity scenario studies highlighting methods used to calculate impacts of global change on several biodiversity metrics. Socioeconomic scenarios: Millennium Ecosystem Asessment (MA), Global Biodiversity Outlook 2 (GBO2), Global Environmental Outlook 4 (GEO4), IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES), International Assessment for Agricultural Science, Technology and Development (IAASTD). Direct drivers: land-use change (LUC), climate change (CC), nitrogen deposition (N), water use, and fishing effort. Projections of direct drivers: indicates model that was used to simulate future changes in direct drivers (GCM, General Circulation Model, with specific climate model indicated in parentheses).

StudySocioeconomic
scenarios
Direct
drivers
Projections of
direct drivers
Projections of impacts on
biodiversity
Metrics of biodiversity and
ecosystem services
Year
Terrestrial
(38)MALUC, CCIMAGESpecies-area relationshipsSpecies extinctions (plants) and habitat loss2100
(7)IPCC SRES and othersCCGCM (HadCM2)Niche-based models. Range changes converted to extinction risk using species-area curves or IUCN statusSpecies extinctions
(plants and animals)
2050
(6)MALUC, CCIMAGEHabitat loss from current species rangesSpecies extinctions (birds)2100
(12)GBO2LUC, CC, NIMAGEDose-response model (GLOBIO)Species abundance changes2050
(15)IPCC SRESCCGCM (HadCM3)Dynamic global vegetation modelsFunctional group range shifts (plants) and carbon sequestration2100
Freshwater
(22)MAWater use and CCWater-GAPPhenomenological model relating river discharge to fish species richnessSpecies extinctions (fishes)2100
Marine
(23)GEO4, IAASTDFishing effortEcosimMarine trophic model (Ecosim with Ecopath).Functional group abundance changes and fish landings2050
(43)IPCC SRESCCGCMs (HadCM3, PCM)Phenomenological model relating sea surface temperature to bleaching frequenciesHabitat loss of tropical corals2100
(52)IPCC SRESCCGCMs (GFDL CM 2.1)Niche-based models.Species range shifts (vertebrate and invertebrates)2050