Table 1

Lifetime probabilities of disease occurrence for a 50-year-old white woman treated with long-term hormone replacement [from a meta-analysis by Grady et al. (32)]. E2 + P = estrogen plus progestin. The estimated lifetime probabilities of developing the conditions mentioned have been derived from mortality and incidence data from the 1987 Vital Statistics of the United States and other sources mentioned in appendix 2 of (32). The relative risks are the “best” estimates of the relative risk for developing each condition in long-term hormone users as compared with nonusers. These estimates were derived from a model of the risks and benefits of hormone therapy developed by Gradyet al. (32). A number of limitations and assumptions have to be taken into consideration when interpreting this table: The duration of the use and dose regimens of E2 + P varied considerably between studies included in the meta-analysis (duration ranged from 2 to 10 years). It was assumed that the addition of progestin to the estrogen regimen would increase the risk of breast cancer from 1.25 to 2.0.

ConditionLifetime probability (%)Relative risk
No treatmentE2 + P
Coronary heart disease46.113.7**–34.40.04**–0.65
Stroke19.819.30.96
Hip fracture15.312.00.75
Alzheimer's disease* 16.3 5.80.40
Breast cancer10.213.0–19.71.25–2.00
Endometrial cancer2.6 2.61.00
Life expectancy (years)82.883.8
  • * Adapted according to Tang (34).

  • ** Adapted according to Grodstein (65).