Table 1 Models explaining the direction and speed (°N/year) of latitudinal shifts in taxon distributions.

Models were fit to data either for all taxa (top section, n = 325 taxa) or for fish alone (bottom section, n = 199 taxa). RVI ranks all explanatory variables from high to low importance. The model coefficients associated with each variable are shown for the most parsimonious model with the lowest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value (best model); a model with all factors retained (full model); a multimodel average (model average); and models with only climate velocity, only survey characteristics (survey char.), or only species characteristics (species char.) retained as explanatory variables. The ∆AIC indicates the difference in model parsimony as explained by AIC relative to the best model; a ∆AIC value <10 indicates higher support for a model. Values of r2 and Akaike weight for each model are also shown. RVI and Akaike weights were calculated across all possible models (128 for all taxa, 1024 for fish alone).

VariableRVIBest modelFull modelModel averageClimate velocitySurvey char.Species char.
All taxa
Climate velocity10.920.870.90.96
Survey extent0.5050.000930.000440.005
Survey duration0.30.000151.80 × 10−50.0012
Fish/invert.0.7960.0110.00980.00840.02
Unfished/fished0.848–0.0087–0.0085–0.0079–0.0099
Pelagic/demersal0.7760.0160.0140.0120.024
Biomass trend0.450.00480.00230.0056
∆AIC02.5211.1127145
r20.410.420.380.120.081
Akaike weight0.110.030.000413.50 × 10−292.90 × 10−33
Fish
Climate velocity10.760.770.780.93
Survey extent0.8380.00230.00170.00180.0063
Survey duration0.42–0.00041–0.000210.00074
Growth rate0.3–0.0016–0.00066–0.0091
Unfished/fished0.41–0.0068–0.0028–0.0025
Pelagic/demersal0.9470.0280.0230.0250.041
Range size0.2863.70 × 10−51.30 × 10−50.00013
Biomass trend0.3440.00340.00130.0046
Trophic level0.356–0.0061–0.0022–0.005
Maximum length0.9560.0140.0140.0140.013
∆AIC08.6320.472.195.9
r20.440.450.360.180.13
Akaike weight0.0710.000952.60 × 10−61.50 × 10−171.10 × 10−22