Table 2 Best-fit model posterior estimates of key epidemiological parameters for simulation of the model during 24 January–3 February and 24 January–8 February.

Seedmax = 2000 on 10 January, Td = 9 days before 24 January, and Td = 6 days between 24 January and 8 February. Travel to and from Wuhan is reduced by 98%, and other intercity travel is reduced by 80%.

Parameter24 January–3 February
[Median (95% CIs)]
24 January–8 February
[Median (95% CIs)]
Transmission rate (β, days−1)0.52 (0.42, 0.72)0.35 (0.28, 0.45)
Relative transmission rate (μ)0.50 (0.37, 0.69)0.43 (0.31, 0.61)
Latency period (Z, days)3.60 (3.41, 3.84)3.42 (3.30, 3.65)
Infectious period (D, days)3.14 (2.71, 3.72)3.31 (2.96, 3.88)
Reporting rate (α)0.65 (0.60, 0.69)0.69 (0.65, 0.72)
Effective reproductive number (Re)1.34 (1.10, 1.67)0.98 (0.83, 1.16)